Mlada Boleslav 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 0 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 58% versus Hradec Králové 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 58% | Hradec Králové 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.09 xG and Hradec Králové 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.840 / defence 0.769 | Hradec Králové attack 0.969 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Hradec Králové's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Hradec Králové 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.09 / Hradec Králové 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.840 / def 0.769 | Hradec Králové attack 0.969 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Hradec Králové xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (1 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 1W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.84x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.96
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.02
0.93
Hradec Králové xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.93 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 23W 16D 25L from 64 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 25L across 64 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.33 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 12W 11D 9L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 9W 9D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 23W 16D 25L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.47 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 56%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mlada Boleslav) and 53% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mlada Boleslav's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové finished level at 0-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.09 xG and Hradec Králové 0.93 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.84 / defence 0.77 against Hradec Králové attack 0.97 / defence 0.78, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 34% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 58%, Hradec Králové 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.