Hradec Králové 3-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 2W 3D 0L from 5 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 5L across 6 road games this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Hradec Králové have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Teplice trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 54% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 36% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.82 xG and Teplice 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.908 / defence 1.043 | Teplice attack 0.759 / defence 1.511. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.321. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.511 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Hradec Králové games / 11 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 55% | Draw 23% | Teplice 22%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Teplice 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Teplice 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 55% | Draw 23% | Teplice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Hradec Králové 1.82 / Teplice 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.908 / def 1.043 | Teplice attack 0.759 / def 1.511 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Teplice xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 3 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 55% chance of winning, Teplice a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.91x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
55%
1.80
23%
4.36
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Teplice xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
4%
28.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.05 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 8L across 11 games — 0.45 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Teplice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 0.82 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.80 PPG; Teplice away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hradec Králové at 60%, Teplice at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Hradec Králové) and 80% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hradec Králové's games and 80% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 80% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Teplice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 3-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.82 xG and Teplice 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 1.51, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 55% | Draw 23% | Teplice 22%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 36%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.