Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Teplice — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hradec Králové at 1.70 PPG versus Teplice's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Hradec Králové hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Teplice, with 1 draws in between.
The last 9 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Teplice trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 49% | Teplice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.48 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.945 / defence 0.770 | Teplice attack 1.131 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Hradec Králové's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Hradec Králové games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 45% | Draw 29% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Teplice 3.85. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 45% | Draw 29% | Teplice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Hradec Králové 1.48 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.945 / def 0.770 | Teplice attack 1.131 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at FINEP Arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 0 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 45% chance of winning, Teplice a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 6W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.94x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.43
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.55
1.07
Teplice xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
16.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 20W 10D 13L from 43 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 16L across 43 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.63 PPG, Teplice on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 5D 2L from 20 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Teplice's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 13D 16L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.20 PPG; Teplice away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 6, Teplice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Hradec Králové 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 45%, Teplice 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 50% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 60% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 50% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Teplice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Hradec Králové 0-2 at FINEP Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.48 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.77 against Teplice attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 45% | Draw 29% | Teplice 26%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 49%, Teplice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.63 PPG, Teplice 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.