Hradec Králové 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Hradec Králové have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hradec Králové register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Hradec Králové hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Teplice, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Teplice trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 53% versus Teplice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 41% | Teplice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.66 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.991 / defence 0.948 | Teplice attack 0.927 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.309. Data: 30 Hradec Králové games / 30 Teplice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 28% | Teplice 24%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 4.17. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 28% | Teplice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.66 / Teplice 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.991 / def 0.948 | Teplice attack 0.927 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Teplice xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 5W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hradec Králové (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.99x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.52
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.81
1.15
Teplice xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.15 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 13W 10D 11L from 34 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. Hradec Králové haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 14L across 34 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. Teplice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.44 PPG, Teplice on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 5W 2D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Pre-Season
Teplice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Teplice have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.82 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Teplice in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 59%, Teplice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Hradec Králové) and 65% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hradec Králové's games and 59% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Hradec Králové's matches and 65% of Teplice's.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Teplice in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 1-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.66 xG and Teplice 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 47% | Draw 28% | Teplice 24%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Teplice 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Teplice's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.44 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.