Hradec Králové 2-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 37%, yet in-form Slovácko provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Slovácko meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hradec Králové have posted 4W 4D 0L at Lokotrans Aréna — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lokotrans Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.56 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovácko are 0.70 PPG clear of Hradec Králové in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 53% versus Slovácko 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 41% | Slovácko 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.40 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.869 / defence 0.895 | Slovácko attack 1.199 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.299. Data: 17 Hradec Králové games / 17 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 37% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 37%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 2.70. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Slovácko 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 37% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.40 / Slovácko 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.869 / def 0.895 | Slovácko attack 1.199 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Slovácko xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 37% chance of winning, Slovácko a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.87x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (1.20x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.95
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.79
1.39
Slovácko xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.39 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hradec Králové come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 6D 5L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (11W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hradec Králové's home form reads 4W 4D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 2.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 11W 2D 4L in their last 17 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovácko away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.00 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slovácko in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Hradec Králové, 88% for Slovácko — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Hradec Králové) and 88% (Slovácko). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hradec Králové's games and 88% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Hradec Králové's matches and 88% of Slovácko's.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovácko tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Slovácko share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 18, as Hradec Králové and Slovácko drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.40 xG and Slovácko 1.39 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Slovácko attack 1.20 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 37% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 37%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 41%, Slovácko 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.