Hradec Králové 3-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hradec Králové and Slovácko meet at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hradec Králové have posted 8W 0D 2L at Malšovická Aréna — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malšovická Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.30 for Slovácko. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hradec Králové, 3 for Slovácko and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hradec Králové — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Slovácko — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 48% versus Slovácko 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 38% | Slovácko 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.29 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.883 / defence 0.914 | Slovácko attack 1.011 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.055. Data: 37 Hradec Králové games / 37 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Slovácko 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Hradec Králové 1.29 / Slovácko 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.883 / def 0.914 | Slovácko attack 1.011 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Slovácko xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Hradec Králové 3 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 43% chance of winning, Slovácko a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 2 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.88x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (1.01x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.40
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.27
0.97
Slovácko xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.97 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hradec Králové come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 10D 16L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.29 PPG from 42 outings (14W 12D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Hradec Králové against 1.29 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hradec Králové's home form reads 12W 4D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.17 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 14W 12D 16L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slovácko away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.90 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hradec Králové have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 1-5 on 9 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hradec Králové
2
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 5, Slovácko have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Slovácko 1-3 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slovácko?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 52%, Slovácko 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hradec Králové) and 48% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Slovácko in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 43% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 48% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slovácko tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Slovácko 3-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.29 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Slovácko attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 43% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 27%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 38%, Slovácko 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovácko's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG, Slovácko 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.