Hradec Králové 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Hradec Králové welcome Pardubice to Malšovická Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Malšovická Aréna this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Hradec Králové) versus 1.00 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 2 for Pardubice and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 51% versus Pardubice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.878 / defence 0.978 | Pardubice attack 0.972 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.266. Data: 53 Hradec Králové games / 53 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 30% | Pardubice 32%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Pardubice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 60% | Pardubice 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 30% | Pardubice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Hradec Králové 1.34 / Pardubice 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.878 / def 0.978 | Pardubice attack 0.972 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Hradec Králové 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 38% chance of winning, Pardubice a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hradec Králové and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 0W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hradec Králové's attack rating (0.88) and Pardubice's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.34
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.55
1.20
Pardubice xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
8%
12.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.20 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 15D 24L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice's form line: 17W 10D 30L from 57 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.21 PPG, Pardubice on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.29 PPG from 28 outings (10W 6D 12L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 9W 3D 16L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.05 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 17W 10D 30L in their last 57 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Pardubice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.29 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 54%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 54% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pardubice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 54% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Pardubice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Pardubice 2-0 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.34 xG and Pardubice 1.20 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against Pardubice attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 38% | Draw 30% | Pardubice 32%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 47%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.21 PPG, Pardubice 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.