Hradec Králové 2-2 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Hradec Králové welcome České Budějovice to Lokotrans Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lokotrans Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 3D 6L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG, České Budějovice 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 0 for České Budějovice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus České Budějovice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | České Budějovice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and České Budějovice 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.895 / defence 0.987 | České Budějovice attack 0.713 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.252. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Hradec Králové games / 20 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 22%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | České Budějovice 4.55. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 50% | České Budějovice 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Hradec Králové 1.50 / České Budějovice 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.895 / def 0.987 | České Budějovice attack 0.713 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.88
České Budějovice xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 České Budějovice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice part of?
Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 52% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hradec Králové and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Record (1 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.83
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.38
0.88
České Budějovice xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
5%
20.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 7D 7L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.25 PPG, České Budějovice on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.33 points per game from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or České Budějovice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.78 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and České Budějovice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 44%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hradec Králové) and 56% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; České Budějovice in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 56% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 56% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and České Budějovice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and České Budějovice finished level at 2-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.50 xG and České Budějovice 0.88 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against České Budějovice attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 52% | Draw 26% | České Budějovice 22%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, České Budějovice 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.25 PPG, České Budějovice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.