FK Jablonec 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Zlin — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FK Jablonec 0.90 PPG, Zlin 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Zlin trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 48% versus Zlin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 33% | Zlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.10 xG and Zlin 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.722 / defence 0.966 | Zlin attack 0.714 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.170. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 FK Jablonec games / 27 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 31% | Zlin 27%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Zlin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 31% | Zlin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG FK Jablonec 1.10 / Zlin 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.722 / def 0.966 | Zlin attack 0.714 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Zlin xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 42% chance of winning, Zlin a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Zlin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.20
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
1.91
0.81
Zlin xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.81 for Zlin, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 27 games, going 4W 13D 10L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (8W 5D 14L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 0.93 PPG, Zlin on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 3W 7D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.26 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 13D 10L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Zlin have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.23 PPG; Zlin away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 46%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for FK Jablonec and 54% for Zlin.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FK Jablonec have failed to score in 31% of games; Zlin in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 54% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Zlin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Zlin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.10 xG and Zlin 0.81 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Zlin attack 0.71 / defence 1.39, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 31% | Zlin 27%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 33%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.93 PPG, Zlin 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.