FK Jablonec 1-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Strelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 1 for Zlin and 6 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 3–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zlin trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Zlin 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Zlin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.15 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.068 / defence 0.882 | Zlin attack 1.064 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 FK Jablonec games / 38 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 19%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG FK Jablonec 2.15 / Zlin 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.068 / def 0.882 | Zlin attack 1.064 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Zlin xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Zlin.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 59% chance of winning, Zlin a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
Record (9 meetings): FK Jablonec 2W | Draws 6 | Zlin 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.44
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.31
1.16
Zlin xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.59
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
2%
46.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.16 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 8D 15L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (11W 8D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Zlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.16 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 20W 8D 15L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 8D 24L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.90 PPG; Zlin away: 0.80 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zlin in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 55%, Zlin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Zlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FK Jablonec's games and 55% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zlin in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Zlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 9, as FK Jablonec and Zlin drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.15 xG and Zlin 1.16 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Zlin attack 1.06 / defence 1.36, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 59% | Draw 23% | Zlin 19%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Zlin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.