FK Jablonec 1-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 50% versus Slavia Praha 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 32% | Slavia Praha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 0.79 xG and Slavia Praha 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.726 / defence 1.010 | Slavia Praha attack 1.234 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.126. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 FK Jablonec games / 28 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 21% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 51%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Slavia Praha 1.96. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 50% | Slavia Praha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 21% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG FK Jablonec 0.79 / Slavia Praha 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.726 / def 1.010 | Slavia Praha attack 1.234 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Slavia Praha xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 21% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.73x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.23x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
21%
4.80
28%
3.55
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.20
1.40
Slavia Praha xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.53
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 10.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.40 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 28 games, going 4W 14D 10L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.39 PPG from 28 outings (21W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.46 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 3W 8D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.00 points per game from 14 outings (8W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.36 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 4W 14D 10L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 21W 4D 3L in their last 28 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.21 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 29 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 50%, Slavia Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for FK Jablonec and 50% for Slavia Praha.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 36%; FK Jablonec have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 0.79 xG and Slavia Praha 1.40 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Slavia Praha attack 1.23 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 21% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 51%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 32%, Slavia Praha 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.