FK Jablonec 1-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Střelnice.
Slavia Praha (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Slavia Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 3–4 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 51% versus Slavia Praha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Slavia Praha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 0.84 xG and Slavia Praha 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.023 / defence 0.807 | Slavia Praha attack 1.239 / defence 0.612. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.270. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.612 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 FK Jablonec games / 40 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 22% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Slavia Praha 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 40% | Slavia Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 22% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG FK Jablonec 0.84 / Slavia Praha 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.023 / def 0.807 | Slavia Praha attack 1.239 / def 0.612 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Slavia Praha xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 22% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
Record (4 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 3W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 1.02x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.61x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.24x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
22%
4.46
33%
2.99
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.11
1.27
Slavia Praha xG
4.46
22%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.4 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.27 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 16D 15L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.51 PPG from 45 outings (35W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 9W 8D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.29 points per game from 21 outings (14W 6D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.18 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 14W 16D 15L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 35W 8D 2L in their last 45 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.67 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.29 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 29 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 57%, Slavia Praha 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FK Jablonec) and 43% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 43% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 43% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 0.84 xG and Slavia Praha 1.27 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.81 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.61, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 22% | Draw 33% | Slavia Praha 44%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Slavia Praha 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.