FK Jablonec 3-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Strelnice. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadion Strelnice — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Strelnice.
Plzen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FK Jablonec are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for FK Jablonec.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 44% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.021 / defence 0.930 | Plzen attack 1.206 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.287. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 FK Jablonec games / 45 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 30% | Plzen 41%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Plzen lead the H2H ledger, but FK Jablonec carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 50% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 30% | Plzen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG FK Jablonec 1.16 / Plzen 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.021 / def 0.930 | Plzen attack 1.206 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Plzen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Plzen xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadion Strelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 3 - 3 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 28% chance of winning, Plzen a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Record (8 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 2 | Plzen 6W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Plzen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.02) and Plzen's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
28%
3.53
30%
3.30
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.61
1.44
Plzen xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
7%
14.97
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.44 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 28W 10D 12L from 50 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 11L across 50 games — 1.98 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.88 PPG, Plzen on 1.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 14W 6D 4L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 14W 4D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.98 scored and 1.10 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into FK Jablonec's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 28W 10D 12L in their last 50 games (1.88 PPG), while Plzen have gone 30W 9D 11L in their last 50 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
FK Jablonec's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 2.00 PPG; Plzen away: 1.92 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Plzen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 42%, Plzen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 58% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 54% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 58% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plzen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Plzen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Strelnice, Regular Season - 16, as FK Jablonec and Plzen drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.16 xG and Plzen 1.44 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FK Jablonec beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Plzen attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 30% | Plzen 41%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 44%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.88 PPG, Plzen 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.