FK Jablonec 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FK Jablonec face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Střelnice. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FK Jablonec have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadion Střelnice — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Plzen — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Plzen have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for FK Jablonec.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Plzen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Plzen trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 63% and Plzen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Plzen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.085 / defence 1.094 | Plzen attack 1.449 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.201. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.449 — the away xG of 1.90 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 FK Jablonec games / 54 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 24% | Plzen 48%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Plzen 2.08. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Plzen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 24% | Plzen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG FK Jablonec 1.44 / Plzen 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.085 / def 1.094 | Plzen attack 1.449 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Plzen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Plzen xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 28% chance of winning, Plzen a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 3W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.08) and Plzen's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
28%
3.54
24%
4.17
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.34
1.90
Plzen xG
3.54
28%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
4%
23.72
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.90 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 16W 20D 23L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 34W 10D 15L across 59 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 10W 12D 7L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plzen's away record stands at 16W 5D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.02 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Plzen in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 23L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Plzen have gone 34W 10D 15L in their last 59 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.45 PPG; Plzen away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Plzen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 66%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FK Jablonec) and 62% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of FK Jablonec's games and 62% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FK Jablonec's matches and 62% of Plzen's.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Plzen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out FK Jablonec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 1-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.44 xG and Plzen 1.90 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Plzen attack 1.45 / defence 0.84, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 28% | Draw 24% | Plzen 48%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.