FK Jablonec vs Pardubice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Strelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FK Jablonec at Stadion Strelnice this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Strelnice than their overall form suggests.

Pardubice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for FK Jablonec, 1.00 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pardubice in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours FK Jablonec, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 40% versus Pardubice 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Pardubice 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.59 xG and Pardubice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / defence 0.842 | Pardubice attack 0.922 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 34 FK Jablonec games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 3.85. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 60% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.

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