FK Jablonec 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FK Jablonec, 0.90 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 46% versus Bohemians 1905 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 30% | Bohemians 1905 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.13 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.733 / defence 1.094 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.681 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.086. FK Jablonec's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 FK Jablonec games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.94 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 40% | Bohemians 1905 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG FK Jablonec 1.13 / Bohemians 1905 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.733 / def 1.094 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.681 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Bohemians 1905 xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.68x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.17
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
1.94
0.81
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
8%
12.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.81 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 33 games, going 6W 14D 13L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 0.91 PPG from 33 outings (7W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for FK Jablonec against 0.91 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 4W 8D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (2W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.21 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 6W 14D 13L in their last 33 games (0.97 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 9D 17L in their last 33 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.18 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 47%, Bohemians 1905 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (FK Jablonec) and 65% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec have failed to score in 29% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FK Jablonec's games and 65% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 65% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 4, as FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.13 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.81 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.68 / defence 1.34, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 43% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 30%, Bohemians 1905 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 0.97 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.