FK Jablonec 0-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for FK Jablonec, 1.10 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FK Jablonec 0W, Bohemians 1905 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–4 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 63% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 56% | Bohemians 1905 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.915 / defence 1.083 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.807 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.203. Data: 41 FK Jablonec games / 41 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 26%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.85. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 70% | Bohemians 1905 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.50 / Bohemians 1905 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.915 / def 1.083 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.807 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
FK Jablonec 0 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.81x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.85
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.55
1.05
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.05 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 15D 20L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.43 PPG from 46 outings (19W 9D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.43 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 7W 9D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.45 points per game from 22 outings (10W 2D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.36 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 64%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 59% (Bohemians 1905).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FK Jablonec's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat FK Jablonec 0-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.50 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 26%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 56%, Bohemians 1905 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.04 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.