FK Jablonec 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.30 PPG versus Baník Ostrava's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 0 for Baník Ostrava and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 58% and Baník Ostrava 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Baník Ostrava 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.32 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.995 / defence 1.021 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.172 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Baník Ostrava's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 FK Jablonec games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 40%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Baník Ostrava 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG FK Jablonec 1.32 / Baník Ostrava 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.995 / def 1.021 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.172 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava part of?
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 32% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.99) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.58
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.82
1.50
Baník Ostrava xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.50 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 15W 25D 26L from 66 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 23L across 66 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.06 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 9W 15D 9L from 33 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 10W 11D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.62 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 65%.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 15W 25D 26L in their last 66 games (1.06 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 25W 18D 23L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Baník Ostrava away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.27 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
2
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when FK Jablonec 4-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Baník Ostrava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FK Jablonec) and 54% (Baník Ostrava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FK Jablonec's games and 64% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 54% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Baník Ostrava finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.32 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.50 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 32% | Draw 28% | Baník Ostrava 40%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Baník Ostrava 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.06 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.