České Budějovice 3-2 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as České Budějovice welcome Zbrojovka Brno to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 1W 3D 6L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record: 4W 0D 2L from 6 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (České Budějovice) versus 1.30 (Zbrojovka Brno). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 46% versus Zbrojovka Brno 69%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (České Budějovice 62% | Zbrojovka Brno 92%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.29 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.698 / defence 1.308 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.138 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.414. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 České Budějovice games / 13 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 21% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 54%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Zbrojovka Brno 1.85. Zbrojovka Brno hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 50% | Zbrojovka Brno 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 21% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG České Budějovice 1.29 / Zbrojovka Brno 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.698 / def 1.308 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.138 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Zbrojovka Brno xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
České Budějovice 3 - 2 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 21% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.70x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
21%
4.78
25%
3.96
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.40
2.10
Zbrojovka Brno xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
12%
8.19
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
3%
39.17
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for České Budějovice and 2.10 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zbrojovka Brno, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 5L across 13 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zbrojovka Brno by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.92 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record stands at 4W 0D 2L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.54 PPG overall record — Zbrojovka Brno travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
České Budějovice are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.77 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 0.33 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
1
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 2 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2023, when Zbrojovka Brno 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
České Budějovice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 33%, Zbrojovka Brno 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for České Budějovice and 83% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of České Budějovice's games and 83% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 83% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do České Budějovice and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as České Budějovice defy the odds to beat Zbrojovka Brno 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Zbrojovka Brno 3-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.29 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 2.10 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.70 / defence 1.31 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.14 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 21% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 54%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a České Budějovice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Zbrojovka Brno 92%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with České Budějovice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.