České Budějovice 2-2 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Slovácko at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Slovácko's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. České Budějovice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for České Budějovice, 1 for Slovácko and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 3–2 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 56% versus Slovácko 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 56% | Slovácko 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.32 xG and Slovácko 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.868 / defence 1.034 | Slovácko attack 1.044 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.315. Data: 32 České Budějovice games / 32 Slovácko games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 35% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 40%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Slovácko 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovácko are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 60% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 35% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG České Budějovice 1.32 / Slovácko 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.868 / def 1.034 | Slovácko attack 1.044 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Slovácko xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slovácko kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
České Budějovice 2 - 2 Slovácko.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slovácko part of?
České Budějovice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 35% chance of winning, Slovácko a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both České Budějovice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Record (2 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.91
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.74
1.42
Slovácko xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.42 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 10W 9D 15L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko's form line: 20W 6D 8L from 34 games, 1.94 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (9W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.74 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 20W 6D 8L in their last 34 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slovácko away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.76 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.35 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slovácko in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
3
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slovácko have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 59%, Slovácko 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for České Budějovice and 76% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of České Budějovice's games and 71% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of České Budějovice's matches and 76% of Slovácko's.
Do České Budějovice and Slovácko tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice and Slovácko share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice and Slovácko finished level at 2-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.32 xG and Slovácko 1.42 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Slovácko attack 1.04 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 35% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 40%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 56%, Slovácko 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.