České Budějovice 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 46%, yet in-form Slavia Praha provide a compelling counter-argument — this České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Slavia Praha meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for České Budějovice, 2 for Slavia Praha and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with České Budějovice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 52% versus Slavia Praha 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (České Budějovice 64% | Slavia Praha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.63 xG and Slavia Praha 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.026 / defence 1.062 | Slavia Praha attack 1.153 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.029. Data: 31 České Budějovice games / 31 Slavia Praha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 29%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Slavia Praha 3.45. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slavia Praha (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 50% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 46% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG České Budějovice 1.63 / Slavia Praha 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.026 / def 1.062 | Slavia Praha attack 1.153 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Slavia Praha xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
České Budějovice 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha part of?
České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 46% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both České Budějovice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Record (4 meetings): České Budějovice 1W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 1.03x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.15x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.01
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.89
1.26
Slavia Praha xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.26 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 11W 5D 17L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 23W 6D 4L from 33 games, 2.27 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.82 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 11W 5D 17L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 23W 6D 4L in their last 33 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Slavia Praha away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.53 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.53 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 6-1 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
České Budějovice
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 47%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for České Budějovice and 53% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 53% of Slavia Praha's.
Do České Budějovice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat České Budějovice 1-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.63 xG and Slavia Praha 1.26 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Slavia Praha attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 46% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 29%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Slavia Praha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 64%, Slavia Praha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.