České Budějovice 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 39%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this České Budějovice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as České Budějovice welcome Plzen to Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
České Budějovice — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's home record at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Plzen's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Plzen in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 62% versus Plzen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Plzen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.25 xG and Plzen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.020 / defence 1.037 | Plzen attack 0.925 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.201. Data: 21 České Budějovice games / 21 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 39% | Draw 28% | Plzen 34%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Plzen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: České Budějovice 70% | Plzen 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 39% | Draw 28% | Plzen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG České Budějovice 1.25 / Plzen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.020 / def 1.037 | Plzen attack 0.925 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Plzen xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Plzen kick off?
České Budějovice vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
České Budějovice 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is České Budějovice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Plzen part of?
České Budějovice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 39% chance of winning, Plzen a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both České Budějovice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.02) and Plzen's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.63
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.41
1.15
Plzen xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.15 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 6D 8L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 16W 3D 2L from 21 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against České Budějovice.
Venue Form
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.86 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Plzen in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Plzen in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Plzen have gone 16W 3D 2L in their last 21 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Plzen away?
České Budějovice's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 2.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Plzen in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
0
Draws
8
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Plzen?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Plzen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 70%, Plzen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (České Budějovice) and 40% (Plzen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of České Budějovice's games and 40% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of České Budějovice's matches and 40% of Plzen's.
Do České Budějovice and Plzen tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Plzen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 0-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.25 xG and Plzen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. České Budějovice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Plzen attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 39% | Draw 28% | Plzen 34%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Plzen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.