České Budějovice 2-3 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 6W 3D 1L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for České Budějovice, 1.20 for Mlada Boleslav — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for České Budějovice, 1 for Mlada Boleslav and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 60% versus Mlada Boleslav 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 60% | Mlada Boleslav 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.46 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.033 / defence 1.158 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.990 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing České Budějovice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 České Budějovice games / 30 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 42% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 32%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Mlada Boleslav 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Mlada Boleslav 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 42% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG České Budějovice 1.46 / Mlada Boleslav 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.033 / def 1.158 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.990 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Mlada Boleslav xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
České Budějovice 2 - 3 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 42% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (1 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 0 | Mlada Boleslav 1W.
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.03) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.99x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.81
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.70
1.25
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.25 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 14L across 30 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.27 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 9W 3D 3L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 5D 14L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
České Budějovice's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 2.00 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mlada Boleslav have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
9
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Mlada Boleslav have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 60%, Mlada Boleslav 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (České Budějovice) and 53% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of České Budějovice's games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of České Budějovice's matches and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 2-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Middle Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.46 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.25 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.99 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 42% | Draw 26% | Mlada Boleslav 32%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 60%, Mlada Boleslav 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.20 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.