České Budějovice 3-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov plays host to České Budějovice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 1.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 2W 0D 2L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Karviná (all games): 0W 4D 4L across 8 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.88 PPG for České Budějovice against 0.50 for Karviná. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — České Budějovice have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Karviná in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 38% versus Karviná 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (České Budějovice 38% | Karviná 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.04 xG and Karviná 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.674 / defence 1.117 | Karviná attack 0.619 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.263. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 České Budějovice games / 8 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 39% | Draw 32% | Karviná 30%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Karviná 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 25% | Karviná 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 39% | Draw 32% | Karviná 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG České Budějovice 1.04 / Karviná 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.674 / def 1.117 | Karviná attack 0.619 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Karviná xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Karviná kick off?
České Budějovice vs Karviná kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Karviná?
České Budějovice 3 - 1 Karviná.
Where is České Budějovice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Karviná part of?
České Budějovice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 39% chance of winning, Karviná a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both České Budějovice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Karviná?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Karviná in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Karviná (all comps): 0W-4D-4L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (0.67) and Karviná's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.62x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.17
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
1.91
0.87
Karviná xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.87 for Karviná, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 4L across 8 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for České Budějovice against 0.50 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Karviná's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Karviná in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Karviná have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Karviná away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.50 PPG; Karviná away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Karviná go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 20 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
České Budějovice
1
Draws
4
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Karviná?
From 7 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 2, Karviná have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when České Budějovice 2-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Karviná?
Karviná have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (České Budějovice) and 25% (Karviná) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for České Budějovice and 25% for Karviná.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Karviná in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 25% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of České Budějovice's recent games and 25% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Karviná tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Karviná in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
České Budějovice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
České Budějovice beat Karviná 3-1 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.04 xG and Karviná 0.87 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. České Budějovice beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.67 / defence 1.12 against Karviná attack 0.62 / defence 1.17, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 39% | Draw 32% | Karviná 30%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 38%, Karviná 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.88 PPG, Karviná 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the České Budějovice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Karviná (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.