České Budějovice 1-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Baník Ostrava at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (České Budějovice) versus 1.50 (Baník Ostrava). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.21 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.921 / defence 0.988 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.690 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.350. Data: 2 České Budějovice games / 2 Baník Ostrava games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 28%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Baník Ostrava 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on České Budějovice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 43% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG České Budějovice 1.21 / Baník Ostrava 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.921 / def 0.988 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.690 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Baník Ostrava xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
České Budějovice 1 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 43% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.41
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.12
0.92
Baník Ostrava xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for České Budějovice and 0.92 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: České Budějovice on 1.50 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
České Budějovice are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Baník Ostrava's attacking output running into České Budějovice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: České Budějovice have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have České Budějovice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Baník Ostrava go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Baník Ostrava won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
0
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when České Budějovice 0-4 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of České Budějovice's recent games and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat České Budějovice 1-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.21 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.92 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 43% | Draw 29% | Baník Ostrava 28%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 0%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.50 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.