Dukla Praha 1-3 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha at Stadion Juliska this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Dukla Praha) versus 0.60 (Teplice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dukla Praha, 0 for Teplice and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (45 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (45 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 51% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 40% | Teplice 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.35 xG and Teplice 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.868 / defence 0.950 | Teplice attack 0.761 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.239. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Dukla Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Dukla Praha games / 40 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 46% | Draw 31% | Teplice 24%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Teplice 4.17. Dukla Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dukla Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 50% | Teplice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 46% | Draw 31% | Teplice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Dukla Praha 1.35 / Teplice 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.868 / def 0.950 | Teplice attack 0.761 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Teplice xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Dukla Praha 1 - 3 Teplice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Teplice part of?
Dukla Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 46% chance of winning, Teplice a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dukla Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 3 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Teplice in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dukla Praha's attack at 0.87x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.28
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
Teplice xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
6%
16.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 0.90 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 16D 21L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 13W 11D 21L from 45 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.89 PPG, Teplice on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 8D 9L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 8W 16D 21L in their last 45 games (0.89 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Teplice away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.10 PPG; Teplice away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Teplice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
4
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Teplice?
From 6 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Teplice have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 60%, Teplice 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dukla Praha) and 40% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dukla Praha's games and 55% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 40% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Teplice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Dukla Praha 1-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.35 xG and Teplice 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 46% | Draw 31% | Teplice 24%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 40%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (45 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (45 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.89 PPG, Teplice 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.