Dukla Praha 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Teplice at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Teplice encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Teplice travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Dukla Praha at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Teplice away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Teplice's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 0 for Teplice and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Dukla Praha 1–1 Teplice — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Teplice in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 52% versus Teplice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 52% | Teplice 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and Teplice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.767 / defence 1.358 | Teplice attack 0.807 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.204. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.767 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Dukla Praha's defence rating of 1.358 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 23 games and Teplice's last 54.

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 32% | Draw 28% | Teplice 40%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.12 | Draw 3.52 | Teplice 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 60% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).

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