Dukla Praha 0-3 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Praha — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dukla Praha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sparta Praha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 2 for Sparta Praha and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dukla Praha 52% and Sparta Praha 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 39% | Sparta Praha 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.96 xG and Sparta Praha 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.852 / defence 1.031 | Sparta Praha attack 1.077 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.242. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Dukla Praha games / 49 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 47%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 2.13. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Dukla Praha 60% | Sparta Praha 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Dukla Praha 0.96 / Sparta Praha 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.852 / def 1.031 | Sparta Praha attack 1.077 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Sparta Praha xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Dukla Praha 0 - 3 Sparta Praha.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha part of?
Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 26% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.85) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
26%
3.84
27%
3.66
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.33
1.38
Sparta Praha xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.38 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 9W 20D 25L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 30W 11D 13L from 54 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (6W 9D 10L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 12W 5D 8L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.78 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 70%.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 9W 20D 25L in their last 54 games (0.87 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 30W 11D 13L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.08 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Sparta Praha won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 60%, Sparta Praha 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Dukla Praha) and 52% (Sparta Praha).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dukla Praha's games and 60% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 52% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Dukla Praha 0-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.96 xG and Sparta Praha 1.38 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Praha attack 1.08 / defence 0.80, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 26% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 47%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 39%, Sparta Praha 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.