Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Pardubice at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Juliska this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pardubice are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Dukla Praha have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Pardubice have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Dukla Praha a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 46% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 38% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.14 xG and Pardubice 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.747 / defence 1.012 | Pardubice attack 1.071 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.118. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Dukla Praha games / 56 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Pardubice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Dukla Praha dominate the H2H record, yet Pardubice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 30% | Pardubice 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Dukla Praha 1.14 / Pardubice 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.747 / def 1.012 | Pardubice attack 1.071 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Pardubice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Dukla Praha 0 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Dukla Praha vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 33% chance of winning, Pardubice a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dukla Praha and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Record (4 meetings): Dukla Praha 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Pardubice in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.75) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
33%
3.07
31%
3.21
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.35
1.21
Pardubice xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.21 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dukla Praha come into this having played 63 games, going 11W 22D 30L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.90 PPG from 63 outings (14W 15D 34L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.87 PPG, Pardubice on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dukla Praha's home form reads 8W 10D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.68 points per game from 31 outings (5W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dukla Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.92 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 11W 22D 30L in their last 63 games (0.87 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 15D 34L in their last 63 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.10 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Pardubice runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
From 5 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 3, Pardubice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Pardubice?
Dukla Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 52%, Pardubice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Dukla Praha) and 52% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 29% of games; Pardubice in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 45% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 52% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Pardubice tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.14 xG and Pardubice 1.21 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Pardubice attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.87 PPG, Pardubice 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.