Bohemians 1905 1-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Ďolíček plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 30 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Teplice (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Teplice 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 56% and Teplice 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 56% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 2.03 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.110 / defence 1.025 | Teplice attack 1.062 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.735 / away 1.029. Data: 31 Bohemians 1905 games / 31 Teplice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 22% | Teplice 20%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Teplice 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Bohemians 1905 dominate the H2H record, yet Teplice are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 22% | Teplice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 2.03 / Teplice 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.110 / def 1.025 | Teplice attack 1.062 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.735 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Teplice xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 58% chance of winning, Teplice a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.06x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.62
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.15
1.12
Teplice xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
37.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.12 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 16W 7D 13L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice's form line: 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.25 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Teplice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.28 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Teplice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 7D 13L in their last 36 games (1.53 PPG), while Teplice have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Teplice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.35 PPG; Teplice away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Teplice in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Teplice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 59%, Teplice 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Bohemians 1905 and 82% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bohemians 1905's games and 71% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 82% of Teplice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Teplice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Teplice in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Teplice defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1905 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 2.03 xG and Teplice 1.12 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Teplice outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Teplice attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 58% | Draw 22% | Teplice 20%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Teplice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 56%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.53 PPG, Teplice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.