Bohemians 1905 0-2 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 40%, yet in-form Bohemians 1905 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ďolíček this season.
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bohemians 1905. A 0.90 PPG lead over Slovan Liberec (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slovan Liberec in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 59% versus Slovan Liberec 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 59% | Slovan Liberec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.50 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.052 / defence 1.239 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.970 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.403. Data: 37 Bohemians 1905 games / 37 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 40%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Slovan Liberec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bohemians 1905 (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Slovan Liberec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.50 / Slovan Liberec 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.052 / def 1.239 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.970 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Slovan Liberec xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 2 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.05) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.97x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.72
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.19
1.69
Slovan Liberec xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
6%
16.52
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.69 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 9D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.23 PPG from 39 outings (13W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.23 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.05 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 13W 9D 17L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 9D 17L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.32 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 58%, Slovan Liberec 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Bohemians 1905) and 47% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians 1905's games and 58% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 47% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Bohemians 1905 0-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.50 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.69 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.05 / defence 1.24 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 33% | Draw 27% | Slovan Liberec 40%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 59%, Slovan Liberec 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.23 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.