Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 44%, yet in-form Sigma Olomouc provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Sigma Olomouc 5W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Sigma Olomouc 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.886 / defence 0.782 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.073 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 38 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 44% | Draw 30% | Sigma Olomouc 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Sigma Olomouc 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sigma Olomouc (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 1905 40% | Sigma Olomouc 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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