Bohemians 1905 3-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bohemians 1905 at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Sigma Olomouc are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Bohemians 1905 0–1 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 54% versus Sigma Olomouc 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 54% | Sigma Olomouc 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.858 / defence 1.030 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.144 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.199. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 38 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 38.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 42%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.14 | Draw 3.82 | Sigma Olomouc 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 40% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.20 / Sigma Olomouc 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.858 / def 1.030 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.144 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Sigma Olomouc xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 32% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.86x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.14x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 38 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.82
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.61
1.41
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.90
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.41 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 8D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (18W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.53 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 21 away games (8W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.58 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 12D 13L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Sigma Olomouc's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.29 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc, the earliest from May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 62%, Sigma Olomouc 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bohemians 1905) and 48% (Sigma Olomouc).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bohemians 1905's games and 52% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 81% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 3-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.14 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 32% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 42%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 54%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.44 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.