Bohemians 1905 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Pardubice encounter.

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Analysis

Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bohemians 1905's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Ďolíček.

Pardubice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, 1.40 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Bohemians 1905, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Pardubice — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

The historical record gives Bohemians 1905 a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Pardubice 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / defence 0.900 | Pardubice attack 0.935 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 39% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 31%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Pardubice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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