Bohemians 1905 3-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
České Budějovice make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 2L this season (5 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
České Budějovice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.40 for České Budějovice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 77% and České Budějovice 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bohemians 1905 69% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.77 xG and České Budějovice 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.035 / defence 1.311 | České Budějovice attack 0.763 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.287. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Bohemians 1905 games / 14 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | České Budějovice 3.57. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 80% | České Budějovice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.77 / České Budějovice 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.035 / def 1.311 | České Budějovice attack 0.763 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
České Budějovice xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 49% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.03) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.76x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.30
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.06
1.29
České Budějovice xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.29 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 3W 3D 7L from 13 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.15 for České Budějovice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Bohemians 1905 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.38 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; České Budějovice in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 games (0.92 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or České Budějovice away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.40 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: České Budějovice won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, České Budějovice have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice?
České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Bohemians 1905, 60% for České Budějovice — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Bohemians 1905 and 60% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bohemians 1905's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 60% of České Budějovice's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat České Budějovice 3-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.77 xG and České Budějovice 1.29 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.03 / defence 1.31 against České Budějovice attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 49% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 28%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 69%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
České Budějovice's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 0.92 PPG, České Budějovice 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.