Baník Ostrava 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 4 sees Slavia Praha travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Baník Ostrava are significantly better at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slavia Praha — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baník Ostrava register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Slavia Praha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Slavia Praha in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 70% versus Slavia Praha 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 67% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.11 xG and Slavia Praha 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.962 / defence 1.308 | Slavia Praha attack 1.258 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Baník Ostrava games / 30 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 23% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 53%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 1.89. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 70% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 23% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.11 / Slavia Praha 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.962 / def 1.308 | Slavia Praha attack 1.258 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 23% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (0.96) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
23%
4.28
24%
4.20
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.90
1.79
Slavia Praha xG
4.28
23%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
4%
25.54
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.79 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 9D 9L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.33 PPG from 33 outings (24W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 8W 5D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.94 points per game from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.36 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 games (1.64 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 24W 5D 4L in their last 33 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.81 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha have won the last 10 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
10
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 75%, Slavia Praha at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Baník Ostrava and 56% for Slavia Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Baník Ostrava's games and 56% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 56% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Championship Round - 4, as Baník Ostrava and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.11 xG and Slavia Praha 1.79 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Slavia Praha attack 1.26 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 23% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 53%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 67%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.