Baník Ostrava 0-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to face Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Baník Ostrava, 1.10 for Hradec Králové — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Hradec Králové in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Baník Ostrava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 70% and Hradec Králové 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 67% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.51 xG and Hradec Králové 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.166 / defence 1.518 | Hradec Králové attack 0.808 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.170. Data: 27 Baník Ostrava games / 27 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 90% | Hradec Králové 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.51 / Hradec Králové 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.166 / def 1.518 | Hradec Králové attack 0.808 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Hradec Králové xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava 0 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 39% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.17x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.81x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
39%
2.55
25%
4.07
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.94
1.44
Hradec Králové xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.44 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 13W 8D 6L from 27 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 8W 11D 8L across 27 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baník Ostrava have managed 6W 4D 3L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 8D 6L in their last 27 games (1.74 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 8W 11D 8L in their last 27 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Hradec Králové away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.69 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 85% for Baník Ostrava, 54% for Hradec Králové — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Baník Ostrava and 46% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 69% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Baník Ostrava's games and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 46% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava and Hradec Králové finished level at 0-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.51 xG and Hradec Králové 1.44 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.17 / defence 1.52 against Hradec Králové attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 39% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 36%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 67%, Hradec Králové 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.