Baník Ostrava 1-0 Artis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Artis at 39%, yet in-form Baník Ostrava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baník Ostrava vs Artis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava and Artis meet at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice) in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice) this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice). At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Artis have collected 0.20 PPG across 5 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Baník Ostrava's 1.60 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Artis's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Artis half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 20% versus Artis 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Baník Ostrava 80% | Artis 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.27 xG and Artis 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.806 / defence 1.220 | Artis attack 0.811 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.384. Data: 33 Baník Ostrava games / 3 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 34% | Draw 27% | Artis 39%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Artis 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Artis at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Baník Ostrava (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Artis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 10% | Artis 80%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice) • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 34% | Draw 27% | Artis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.27 / Artis 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.806 / def 1.220 | Artis attack 0.811 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Artis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Artis xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Artis kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Artis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice).
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Artis?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 Artis.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice).
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Artis part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Artis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 34% chance of winning, Artis a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Artis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Artis in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Artis (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.81x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Artis's attack (0.81x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Artis Win
34%
2.92
27%
3.69
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.64
1.37
Artis xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.37 for Artis, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Baník Ostrava's recent record stands at 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Artis heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Artis in 80%.
Defensively: Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Artis in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Artis have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Baník Ostrava or Artis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Artis in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since August 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Baník Ostrava
0
Draws
0
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Artis?
From 1 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 1, Artis have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-0 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Artis?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 20%, Artis 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Baník Ostrava and 80% for Artis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Artis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 80% of Artis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 80% of Artis's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Artis tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Artis in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baník Ostrava defy the odds to beat Artis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Artis 1-0 at Městský stadion (Ostrava-Vítkovice), Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.27 xG and Artis 1.37 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Artis landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Artis attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 34% | Draw 27% | Artis 39%, with Artis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 80%, Artis 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Artis's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Artis managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.