Artis vs Zlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 47%, yet in-form Artis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Artis vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Town Stadium Karvina to face Artis in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Artis (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Artis have posted 0W 1D 5L at Town Stadium Karvina — 0.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.17 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Zlin have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Artis. A 0.70 PPG lead over Zlin (0.80 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Artis — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Zlin — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 58% versus Zlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 75% | Zlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.20 xG and Zlin 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.648 / defence 1.478 | Zlin attack 0.930 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.183. Artis's attack strength of 0.648 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Artis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Artis games / 41 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 27% | Draw 26% | Zlin 47%. Fair-value odds: Artis 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 2.13. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Artis (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Artis 50% | Zlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 27% | Draw 26% | Zlin 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Artis 1.20 / Zlin 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.648 / def 1.478 | Zlin attack 0.930 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Zlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Zlin xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Zlin kick off?
Artis vs Zlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Zlin part of?
Artis vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 27% chance of winning, Zlin a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Artis and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Zlin in?
Artis (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Zlin (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.65x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.93x) against Artis's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 10/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
27%
3.66
26%
3.83
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Artis xG
Total xG
2.82
1.63
Zlin xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Artis and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Artis and 1.63 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Artis's recent record stands at 2W 2D 8L from 12 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 10L across 12 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.67 PPG for Artis against 0.33 for Zlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Artis have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Zlin's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Artis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 0.75 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Zlin in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Zlin have gone 1W 1D 10L in their last 12 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Zlin away?
Artis's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.20 PPG; Zlin away: 0.20 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 40%, Zlin 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Artis and 80% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Artis have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Artis's games and 80% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Artis vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Artis's matches and 80% of Zlin's.
Do Artis and Zlin tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zlin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.