Artis vs FK Jablonec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FK Jablonec travel to Town Stadium Karvina to take on Artis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Town Stadium Karvina this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FK Jablonec are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Artis trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
FK Jablonec trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 62% versus FK Jablonec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 75% | FK Jablonec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.02 xG and FK Jablonec 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.767 / defence 1.646 | FK Jablonec attack 0.858 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Artis's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Artis games / 34 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 19% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 59%. Fair-value odds: Artis 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | FK Jablonec 1.69. The model has a clear lean to FK Jablonec (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Artis 75% | FK Jablonec 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 19% | Draw 22% | FK Jablonec 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Artis 1.02 / FK Jablonec 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.767 / def 1.646 | FK Jablonec attack 0.858 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.95
FK Jablonec xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Artis vs FK Jablonec is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs FK Jablonec part of?
Artis vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 19% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Artis and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and FK Jablonec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and FK Jablonec in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-6L in 8 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Artis's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
19%
5.20
22%
4.62
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Artis xG
Total xG
2.97
1.95
FK Jablonec xG
5.20
19%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
3%
36.70
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Artis and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Artis and 1.95 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs FK Jablonec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Artis come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 1D 6L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Artis's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FK Jablonec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Artis are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Artis have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 1D 6L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or FK Jablonec away?
FK Jablonec's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.00 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 75%, FK Jablonec 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Artis and 25% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Artis's recent matches and 25% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 25% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Artis and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.