Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Yunnan Yukun stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's home record at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Super League appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 4–3 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Sichuan Jiuniu in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yunnan Yukun 65% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 53% | Sichuan Jiuniu 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.21 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.967 / defence 1.060 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.667 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.293. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Yunnan Yukun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Yunnan Yukun games / 47 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 67% | Draw 19% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Sichuan Jiuniu 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Yunnan Yukun 57% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 67% | Draw 19% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 53% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.21 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.967 / def 1.060 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.667 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
53%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 67% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 0.97x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.20
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.12
0.91
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
11%
9.08
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
64.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 0.91 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, Yunnan Yukun have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 6W 4D 7L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 5W 2D 10L from 17 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yunnan Yukun on 1.29 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yunnan Yukun have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sichuan Jiuniu's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.24 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.86 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Yunnan Yukun have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Yunnan Yukun
0
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 4-3 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Yunnan Yukun) and 71% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Yunnan Yukun's recent matches and 14% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 71% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.21 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.34, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 67% | Draw 19% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 53%, Sichuan Jiuniu 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.29 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.