Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to face Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Zhixing have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.40 for Dalian Zhixing. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dalian Zhixing in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 1W, Dalian Zhixing 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Yunnan Yukun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 76% and Dalian Zhixing 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 67% | Dalian Zhixing 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.14 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.139 / defence 1.143 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.922 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.290. Data: 52 Yunnan Yukun games / 51 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 55% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 24%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Dalian Zhixing 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 60% | Dalian Zhixing 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 55% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.14 / Dalian Zhixing 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.139 / def 1.143 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.922 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Dalian Zhixing xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 55% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (3 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 1W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 1.14x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.92x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.83
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.50
1.36
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
3%
35.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.36 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 20W 13D 18L from 51 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 21L across 51 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.33 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 14W 6D 5L from 25 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dalian Zhixing's away record stands at 3W 9D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.22 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 20W 13D 18L in their last 51 games (1.43 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.92 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Yunnan Yukun have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Yunnan Yukun, 64% for Dalian Zhixing — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Yunnan Yukun) and 52% (Dalian Zhixing). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 64% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 52% of Dalian Zhixing's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun beat Dalian Zhixing 3-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.14 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.36 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 55% | Draw 21% | Dalian Zhixing 24%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 67%, Dalian Zhixing 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.43 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yunnan Yukun win broke the near-deadlock. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.