Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Sichuan Jiuniu travel to Wuhan Sports Centre to take on Wuhan Three Towns. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 3W 4D 3L at Wuhan Sports Centre — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wuhan Three Towns are significantly better at Wuhan Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Sichuan Jiuniu — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Wuhan Three Towns) versus 0.60 (Sichuan Jiuniu). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 0 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Three Towns trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sichuan Jiuniu trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 53% | Sichuan Jiuniu 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.94 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.868 / defence 1.203 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.680 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.839 / away 1.355. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Wuhan Three Towns games / 57 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 56% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 56% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.94 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.868 / def 1.203 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.680 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.839 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 2 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 56% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 2W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.13
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.05
1.11
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
3%
34.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.11 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 14W 14D 29L from 57 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 33L across 57 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 0.98 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 8W 7D 13L from 28 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 4W 5D 19L across 28 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 29L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 14W 10D 33L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.11 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 54%, Sichuan Jiuniu 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 57% (Sichuan Jiuniu).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 32% of games; Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 46% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sichuan Jiuniu defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.94 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.11 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.87 / defence 1.20 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.68 / defence 1.22, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 56% | Draw 24% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sichuan Jiuniu win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Sichuan Jiuniu 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 0.98 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sichuan Jiuniu win broke the near-deadlock. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.