Wuhan Three Towns 3-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. make the trip to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium this season: 7W 0D 0L from 7 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 4.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 2.20 in Wuhan Three Towns's favour (2.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 82% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 3.10 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.855 / defence 0.927 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.772 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.233. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.855 — their λ of 3.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Wuhan Three Towns games / 30 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 80% | Draw 13% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 57% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 80% | Draw 13% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 56% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 3.10 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.855 / def 0.927 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.772 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.10
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
56%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Wuhan Three Towns 3 - 4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 80% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating (1.85) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 3.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (0.77x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 17/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.9%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
80%
1.24
13%
7.92
7%
14.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.10
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.98
0.88
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.24
80%
Home win
7.92
13%
Draw
14.51
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
5%
22.22
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 3.10 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.88 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 17 games, going 15W 2D 0L for 2.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.05 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 7W 0D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 3.18 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.65 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 15W 2D 0L in their last 17 games (2.76 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 3.00 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 0-4 on 4 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
1
Draws
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 57%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wuhan Three Towns and 43% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 86% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 43% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 43% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-4 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 3.10 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.88 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 0.88 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.85 / defence 0.93 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 17/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 80% | Draw 13% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a Shijiazhuang Y. J. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 82%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.76 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 4.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.