Wuhan Three Towns 1-1 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island meet at Wuhan Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 July 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wuhan Three Towns's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Centre: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Youth Island have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Youth Island, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Youth Island's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.20 for Qingdao Youth Island. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Qingdao Youth Island in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Three Towns lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with Qingdao Youth Island winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Qingdao Youth Island — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Qingdao Youth Island 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Qingdao Youth Island 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.079 / defence 1.160 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.792 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.322. Data: 46 Wuhan Three Towns games / 46 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 26%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Qingdao Youth Island 3.85. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Three Towns 60% | Qingdao Youth Island 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jul 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.079 / def 1.160 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.792 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Qingdao Youth Island xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 18 July 2025 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Wuhan Three Towns 1 - 1 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 50% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Youth Island 2W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Qingdao Youth Island (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Youth Island's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Qingdao Youth Island's attack (0.79x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
50%
1.98
23%
4.28
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.99
1.21
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.21 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Wuhan Three Towns have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 11D 22L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Youth Island's form line: 13W 14D 19L from 46 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Qingdao Youth Island is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.15 for Qingdao Youth Island. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
On the road, Qingdao Youth Island have gone 6W 3D 13L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Youth Island are on 1.35 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Qingdao Youth Island
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 13W 11D 22L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Qingdao Youth Island have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Qingdao Youth Island away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.18 PPG; Qingdao Youth Island away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Youth Island — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Qingdao Youth Island have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island?
Qingdao Youth Island have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Qingdao Youth Island are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 54%, Qingdao Youth Island 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Wuhan Three Towns and 68% for Qingdao Youth Island. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns have failed to score in 32% of games; Qingdao Youth Island in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Qingdao Youth Island?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 59% of Qingdao Youth Island's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 68% of Qingdao Youth Island's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Qingdao Youth Island in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island finished level at 1-1 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.77 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.21 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 50% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 26%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 50%, Qingdao Youth Island 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.09 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.