Tianjin Teda 2-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Wuhan Zall at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 17 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.75 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.851 / defence 1.630 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.729 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 0.828 / away 1.139. Data: 4 Tianjin Teda games / 4 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 17% | Draw 36% | Wuhan Zall 48%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 5.88 | Draw 2.78 | Wuhan Zall 2.08. Wuhan Zall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Zall are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Zall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 17% | Draw 36% | Wuhan Zall 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.75 / Wuhan Zall 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.851 / def 1.630 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.729 / def 1.062 | league avg home 0.828 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Wuhan Zall xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:00 on Monday 17 May 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 17% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 48% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tianjin Teda's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
17%
5.89
36%
2.81
48%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.10
1.35
Wuhan Zall xG
5.89
17%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.11
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
4%
22.82
22%
4.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 16.5 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.35 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Wuhan Zall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2022, when Tianjin Teda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 0-3 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Zall?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Wuhan Zall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Zall 2-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.75 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.35 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.63 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 17% | Draw 36% | Wuhan Zall 48%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Tianjin Teda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.