Tianjin Teda 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 44% versus Wuhan Three Towns 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Wuhan Three Towns 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.19 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.054 / defence 0.874 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.453 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.280. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Tianjin Teda games / 44 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 27% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 46%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.17. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Wuhan Three Towns 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 27% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.19 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.054 / def 0.874 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.453 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Wuhan Three Towns xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 27% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 1.05x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.45x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
27%
3.73
27%
3.72
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.82
1.62
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
5%
18.90
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.62 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 15W 7D 12L from 34 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 25W 3D 6L across 34 games — 2.29 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 13W 2D 2L across 17 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.68 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Wuhan Three Towns in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 25W 3D 6L in their last 34 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.47 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 47%, Wuhan Three Towns 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Tianjin Teda) and 65% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 47% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 65% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.19 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.45 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 27% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 46%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Wuhan Three Towns 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.