Tianjin Teda 1-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Tianjin Teda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Tianjin Teda at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.80 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2022, ended 3–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 49% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.47 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.972 / defence 0.916 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.210 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.382. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Tianjin Teda games / 34 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shijiazhuang Y. J. are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.47 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.972 / def 0.916 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.210 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 35% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (4 meetings): Tianjin Teda 3W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.97x the league average against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack (1.21x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.68
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.00
1.53
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.53 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 13D 23L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.24 PPG from 55 outings (17W 17D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.24 for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 10W 6D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.22 points per game from 27 outings (9W 6D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.29 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.33 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 3-0 on 12 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Tianjin Teda 3-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Tianjin Teda and 70% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Shijiazhuang Y. J. finished level at 1-1 at Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.47 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.53 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.21 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 27% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 38%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.27 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.