Tianjin Teda 1-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuyuan River Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuyuan River Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.90 PPG versus SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tianjin Teda, 2 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 54% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 48% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.53 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.130 / defence 0.859 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.139 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.384. Data: 40 Tianjin Teda games / 40 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.53 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.130 / def 0.859 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.139 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 40% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (1.13) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.73
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.88
1.35
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.35 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 11D 21L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 28W 10D 10L from 48 games, 1.96 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tianjin Teda.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 10W 7D 6L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.75 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 28W 10D 10L in their last 48 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.22 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 65%, SHANGHAI SIPG 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Tianjin Teda and 56% for SHANGHAI SIPG. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Tianjin Teda's games and 61% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.53 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.35 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.14 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 40% | Draw 27% | SHANGHAI SIPG 33%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 48%, SHANGHAI SIPG 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.