Tianjin Teda 1-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 June 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 7W 2D 1L at Olympic Sports Center Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Tianjin Teda) versus 1.40 (Shandong Luneng). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shandong Luneng, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Tianjin Teda.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 62% versus Shandong Luneng 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Shandong Luneng 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / defence 1.011 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.351 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.370. Shandong Luneng bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Tianjin Teda games / 43 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 40%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Shandong Luneng 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Shandong Luneng lead the H2H ledger, but Tianjin Teda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.80 / Shandong Luneng 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.848 / def 1.011 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.351 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Shandong Luneng xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 37% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Record (6 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 2 | Shandong Luneng 4W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Shandong Luneng's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
37%
2.71
23%
4.26
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.67
1.87
Shandong Luneng xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.50
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
6%
17.65
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.87 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 21D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.77 PPG from 60 outings (29W 19D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.50 PPG, Shandong Luneng on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 12W 15D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (9W 13D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.80 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.70 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shandong Luneng have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
7
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Shandong Luneng 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 43% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 33%; Shandong Luneng in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 43% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shandong Luneng 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.80 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.87 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.35 / defence 1.26, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 40%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.